After Bell Investing · Stock of the Day

2026-10-16

Three large-cap Yahoo day gainers. Market cap ≥ $10B, US listing, real volume. Same pattern readings as the Mag7 print. Filed as a note beside the print. A one-day move is not a call. VIX 16.46 low. SPY 771.79.

AR Antero Resources Corporation

+6.1%

Cap: $11.9B
Last: 38.65
RSI 14: 63.3
vs SMA20: +9.1%

Named setup pullback in uptrend · 70/100 · buy

Stop ~36.34 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.

New on the local stock list this close.

Pattern readings

Pattern	Current	Threshold	vs	Status
Historic drawdown	20.0%	>= top-3 avg 41.7%	0.48x	below
20d range high	38.65	> 37.68	+2.6%	met
20d range low	38.65	< 33.12	+16.7%	below
Relative volume	1.28x	>= 1.50x expansion / <= 0.70x dry-up	0.86x vs expansion	below
RSI_14	63.3	oversold < 30 · reset 35-58 · overbought > 70	mid 30-70	inside
MACD vs signal	0.201 vs -0.217	cross up: line > signal after line <= signal	spread 0.418	above
Bollinger squeeze	width 15.209	<= 20%ile cutoff 9.354	1.63x cutoff	below
vs SMA20 (pullback tag)	+9.1%	-4.0% to +1.2%	+9.1%	outside
vs 52w high (breakout)	-15.5%	>= -3.0% (within 3% of high)	-15.5%	below
SMA50 vs SMA200	36.86 vs 36.43	golden: 50 > 200 · death: 50 < 200	+1.2%	above
VIX	16.46 (low)	elevated >= 20 · stress >= 30	16.46	low
RSI bullish divergence	price 33.96 → 33.39 · osc 29.58 → 33.43	price lower low AND oscillator higher low	price -1.7% · osc +3.85	met

OVV Ovintiv Inc. (DE)

+4.8%

Cap: $19.2B
Last: 69.33
RSI 14: 71.1
vs SMA20: +11.7%

Named setup breakout · 65/100 · buy

Failed breakout if close back below prior 52w high and stop ~65.63.

New on the local stock list this close.

Pattern readings

Pattern	Current	Threshold	vs	Status
Historic drawdown	2.4%	>= top-3 avg 29.3%	0.08x	below
20d range high	69.33	> 67.50	+2.7%	met
20d range low	69.33	< 57.46	+20.7%	below
Relative volume	1.17x	>= 1.50x expansion / <= 0.70x dry-up	0.78x vs expansion	below
RSI_14	71.1	oversold < 30 · reset 35-58 · overbought > 70	+1.1 vs 70	overbought
MACD vs signal	1.238 vs 0.303	cross up: line > signal after line <= signal	spread 0.935	above
Bollinger squeeze	width 20.212	<= 20%ile cutoff 10.485	1.93x cutoff	below
vs SMA20 (pullback tag)	+11.7%	-4.0% to +1.2%	+11.7%	outside
vs 52w high (breakout)	-0.0%	>= -3.0% (within 3% of high)	-0.0%	met
SMA50 vs SMA200	63.50 vs 56.04	golden: 50 > 200 · death: 50 < 200	+13.3%	above
VIX	16.46 (low)	elevated >= 20 · stress >= 30	16.46	low

EQNR Equinor ASA

+4.6%

Cap: $111.3B
Last: 46.98
RSI 14: 67.7
vs SMA20: +9.1%

Named setup breakout · 65/100 · buy

Failed breakout if close back below prior 52w high and stop ~44.63.

New on the local stock list this close.

Pattern readings

Pattern	Current	Threshold	vs	Status
Historic drawdown	0.0%	>= top-3 avg 47.9%	0.00x	below
20d range high	46.98	> 45.64	+2.9%	met
20d range low	46.98	< 40.96	+14.7%	below
Relative volume	1.03x	>= 1.50x expansion / <= 0.70x dry-up	0.69x vs expansion	below
RSI_14	67.7	oversold < 30 · reset 35-58 · overbought > 70	mid 30-70	inside
MACD vs signal	0.751 vs 0.361	cross up: line > signal after line <= signal	spread 0.390	above
Bollinger squeeze	width 13.209	<= 20%ile cutoff 11.906	1.11x cutoff	below
vs SMA20 (pullback tag)	+9.1%	-4.0% to +1.2%	+9.1%	outside
vs 52w high (breakout)	-0.1%	>= -3.0% (within 3% of high)	-0.1%	met
SMA50 vs SMA200	42.81 vs 36.42	golden: 50 > 200 · death: 50 < 200	+17.6%	above
VIX	16.46 (low)	elevated >= 20 · stress >= 30	16.46	low

Named-setup analog on these three

Research analog, not a forecast. Close-to-close after the first session a named setup clears min_score. Onsets are at least 21 sessions apart. A win on a buy is a higher close 21 sessions later, net of 10 bps. A win on a sell is a lower close. Hit rate is always shown next to the same names' unconditional 21-session rate. Mag7 thresholds (n ≥ 40, n_eff ≥ 40) are reported for comparability, but this walk can never earn a cleared grade: on one name n_eff equals n by construction, so read n_episodes — onsets grouped into quarter-wide windows — as the independence count. One long drawdown re-arms a washout setup every quarter and shows up as many onsets. The names were also selected because they jumped today, and the $10B floor is measured today while the history covers the era when the name was far smaller.

Lookback 2300 sessions · onset gap 21 · tape AR 2300 · OVV 2300 · EQNR 2300

Premise check: buying this name after a big up day

The page picks names because they jumped. This is that entry on each name's own history — not a named setup.

Name	up day ≥	n	episodes	21d net	base	vs SPY	beat SPY
AR	8%	27	14	59.3%	49.1%	+11.7%	55.6%
OVV	8%	17	11	76.5%	53.3%	+10.8%	70.6%
EQNR	8%	3	2	100.0%	54.5%	+12.0%	100.0%

Today's printed setups

Name	Setup	Side	n	n_eff	episodes	21d net	base	vs SPY	beat SPY	base beat	verdict
AR	pullback_in_uptrend	buy	33	33.0	16	57.6%	49.1%	+4.1%	48.5%	44.9%	fail
OVV	breakout	buy	17	17.0	11	58.8%	53.3%	+1.3%	64.7%	48.8%	fail
EQNR	breakout	buy	26	26.0	14	50.0%	54.5%	+2.4%	50.0%	45.6%	fail

Whole-panel walk

Setup	Side	n	n_eff	episodes	21d net	base	vs SPY	beat SPY	base beat	verdict
pullback_in_uptrend	buy	111	56.0	25	54.1%	52.3%	+2.7%	51.4%	46.5%	marginal
pullback_and_rs	buy	101	52.8	23	57.4%	52.3%	+3.7%	54.5%	46.5%	marginal
cheap_vs_industry	buy	0	0.0	0	—	52.3%	—	—	46.5%	fail
breakout	buy	63	36.9	18	57.1%	52.3%	+2.4%	55.6%	46.5%	thin
golden_cross	buy	22	18.0	12	59.1%	52.3%	+0.3%	59.1%	46.5%	fail
bullish_divergence	buy	21	16.0	12	66.7%	52.3%	+2.5%	57.1%	46.5%	fail
volume_breakout	buy	53	32.4	20	50.9%	52.3%	-0.6%	50.9%	46.5%	fail
squeeze_breakout	buy	41	32.8	19	43.9%	52.3%	-1.0%	41.5%	46.5%	fail
historic_drawdown	buy	57	36.3	21	56.1%	52.3%	+2.4%	50.9%	46.5%	thin
deep_drawdown_value	buy	39	29.3	18	61.5%	52.3%	+1.0%	46.2%	46.5%	fail
death_cross	sell	20	15.0	9	40.0%	47.1%	+0.8%	45.0%	53.5%	fail
bearish_divergence	sell	11	11.0	10	72.7%	47.1%	+0.4%	72.7%	53.5%	fail
breakdown	sell	52	31.4	17	55.8%	47.1%	+5.1%	65.4%	53.5%	thin
volume_breakdown	sell	55	35.9	20	50.9%	47.1%	+1.8%	60.0%	53.5%	thin
squeeze_breakdown	sell	37	26.0	15	51.4%	47.1%	+3.9%	56.8%	53.5%	fail
bounce_in_downtrend	sell	83	48.3	23	47.0%	47.1%	-0.8%	57.8%	53.5%	fail

AR

Setup	Side	n	n_eff	episodes	21d net	base	vs SPY	beat SPY	base beat	verdict
pullback_in_uptrend	buy	33	33.0	16	57.6%	49.1%	+4.1%	48.5%	44.9%	fail
pullback_and_rs	buy	26	26.0	15	69.2%	49.1%	+8.1%	57.7%	44.9%	fail
cheap_vs_industry	buy	0	0.0	0	—	49.1%	—	—	44.9%	fail
breakout	buy	20	20.0	12	65.0%	49.1%	+3.5%	55.0%	44.9%	fail
golden_cross	buy	8	8.0	7	50.0%	49.1%	-1.4%	50.0%	44.9%	fail
bullish_divergence	buy	5	5.0	4	40.0%	49.1%	-10.7%	40.0%	44.9%	fail
volume_breakout	buy	16	16.0	12	56.2%	49.1%	-3.0%	62.5%	44.9%	fail
squeeze_breakout	buy	14	14.0	10	42.9%	49.1%	-1.4%	42.9%	44.9%	fail
historic_drawdown	buy	23	23.0	17	52.2%	49.1%	+1.2%	43.5%	44.9%	fail
deep_drawdown_value	buy	15	15.0	11	66.7%	49.1%	+5.4%	60.0%	44.9%	fail
death_cross	sell	7	7.0	7	42.9%	50.2%	-0.3%	42.9%	55.1%	fail
bearish_divergence	sell	5	5.0	5	60.0%	50.2%	-8.2%	60.0%	55.1%	fail
breakdown	sell	21	21.0	11	61.9%	50.2%	+5.7%	66.7%	55.1%	fail
volume_breakdown	sell	17	17.0	11	47.1%	50.2%	-2.5%	58.8%	55.1%	fail
squeeze_breakdown	sell	13	13.0	10	61.5%	50.2%	+4.6%	61.5%	55.1%	fail
bounce_in_downtrend	sell	27	27.0	15	48.1%	50.2%	-3.0%	55.6%	55.1%	fail

EQNR

Setup	Side	n	n_eff	episodes	21d net	base	vs SPY	beat SPY	base beat	verdict
pullback_in_uptrend	buy	40	40.0	18	50.0%	54.5%	+0.6%	52.5%	45.6%	marginal
pullback_and_rs	buy	39	39.0	18	51.3%	54.5%	+0.4%	53.8%	45.6%	fail
cheap_vs_industry	buy	0	0.0	0	—	54.5%	—	—	45.6%	fail
breakout	buy	26	26.0	14	50.0%	54.5%	+2.4%	50.0%	45.6%	fail
golden_cross	buy	8	8.0	7	62.5%	54.5%	+0.8%	62.5%	45.6%	fail
bullish_divergence	buy	6	6.0	6	66.7%	54.5%	+1.7%	50.0%	45.6%	fail
volume_breakout	buy	17	17.0	14	47.1%	54.5%	+1.2%	41.2%	45.6%	fail
squeeze_breakout	buy	14	14.0	11	50.0%	54.5%	-1.4%	42.9%	45.6%	fail
historic_drawdown	buy	13	13.0	9	46.2%	54.5%	-0.9%	46.2%	45.6%	fail
deep_drawdown_value	buy	8	8.0	6	75.0%	54.5%	-1.2%	50.0%	45.6%	fail
death_cross	sell	7	7.0	6	42.9%	45.2%	-0.1%	28.6%	54.4%	fail
bearish_divergence	sell	3	3.0	3	100.0%	45.2%	+13.6%	100.0%	54.4%	fail
breakdown	sell	18	18.0	11	50.0%	45.2%	+2.5%	61.1%	54.4%	fail
volume_breakdown	sell	18	18.0	13	61.1%	45.2%	+3.3%	72.2%	54.4%	fail
squeeze_breakdown	sell	13	13.0	10	38.5%	45.2%	+1.6%	53.8%	54.4%	fail
bounce_in_downtrend	sell	31	31.0	14	51.6%	45.2%	+1.7%	61.3%	54.4%	fail

OVV

Setup	Side	n	n_eff	episodes	21d net	base	vs SPY	beat SPY	base beat	verdict
pullback_in_uptrend	buy	38	38.0	17	55.3%	53.3%	+3.8%	52.6%	48.8%	fail
pullback_and_rs	buy	36	36.0	17	55.6%	53.3%	+3.9%	52.8%	48.8%	fail
cheap_vs_industry	buy	0	0.0	0	—	53.3%	—	—	48.8%	fail
breakout	buy	17	17.0	11	58.8%	53.3%	+1.3%	64.7%	48.8%	fail
golden_cross	buy	6	6.0	6	66.7%	53.3%	+1.9%	66.7%	48.8%	fail
bullish_divergence	buy	10	10.0	9	80.0%	53.3%	+9.5%	70.0%	48.8%	fail
volume_breakout	buy	20	20.0	15	50.0%	53.3%	-0.2%	50.0%	48.8%	fail
squeeze_breakout	buy	13	13.0	10	38.5%	53.3%	-0.1%	38.5%	48.8%	fail
historic_drawdown	buy	21	21.0	14	66.7%	53.3%	+5.8%	61.9%	48.8%	fail
deep_drawdown_value	buy	16	16.0	10	50.0%	53.3%	-2.0%	31.2%	48.8%	fail
death_cross	sell	6	6.0	6	33.3%	46.0%	+3.0%	66.7%	51.2%	fail
bearish_divergence	sell	3	3.0	3	66.7%	46.0%	+1.4%	66.7%	51.2%	fail
breakdown	sell	13	13.0	8	53.8%	46.0%	+7.6%	69.2%	51.2%	fail
volume_breakdown	sell	20	20.0	15	45.0%	46.0%	+4.0%	50.0%	51.2%	fail
squeeze_breakdown	sell	11	11.0	8	54.5%	46.0%	+5.8%	54.5%	51.2%	fail
bounce_in_downtrend	sell	25	25.0	13	40.0%	46.0%	-1.7%	56.0%	51.2%	fail

2026-10-16

Pattern readings

Pattern readings

Pattern readings

Named-setup analog on these three

Premise check: buying this name after a big up day

Today's printed setups

Whole-panel walk

AR

EQNR

OVV

Earlier mover prints