After Bell Investing · Stock of the Day

2026-10-06

Three large-cap Yahoo day gainers. Market cap ≥ $10B, US listing, real volume. Same pattern readings as the Mag7 print. Filed as a note beside the print. A one-day move is not a call. VIX 15.01 low. SPY 779.09.

CIEN Ciena Corporation

+13.8%

Cap: $62.9B
Last: 443.65
RSI 14: 69.7
vs SMA20: +23.7%

Named setup volume breakout · 58/100 · buy

Failed break if close back under 397.47; stop ~395.59.

New on the local stock list this close.

Pattern readings

Pattern	Current	Threshold	vs	Status
Historic drawdown	29.2%	>= top-3 avg 44.0%	0.66x	below
20d range high	443.65	> 397.47	+11.6%	met
20d range low	443.65	< 318.43	+39.3%	below
Relative volume	2.33x	>= 1.50x expansion / <= 0.70x dry-up	1.55x vs expansion	met
RSI_14	69.7	oversold < 30 · reset 35-58 · overbought > 70	mid 30-70	inside
MACD vs signal	7.381 vs -2.807	cross up: line > signal after line <= signal	spread 10.188	above
Bollinger squeeze	width 29.462	<= 20%ile cutoff 19.653	1.50x cutoff	below
vs SMA20 (pullback tag)	+23.7%	-4.0% to +1.2%	+23.7%	outside
vs 52w high (breakout)	-30.4%	>= -3.0% (within 3% of high)	-30.4%	below
SMA50 vs SMA200	375.27 vs 393.42	golden: 50 > 200 · death: 50 < 200	-4.6%	below
VIX	15.01 (low)	elevated >= 20 · stress >= 30	15.01	low

TLN Talen Energy Corporation

+12.4%

Cap: $17.6B
Last: 373.11
RSI 14: 74.4
vs SMA20: +21.0%

Named setup volume breakout · 58/100 · buy

Failed break if close back under 337.22; stop ~339.83.

New on the local stock list this close.

Pattern readings

Pattern	Current	Threshold	vs	Status
Historic drawdown	16.3%	>= top-3 avg 25.2%	0.65x	below
20d range high	373.11	> 337.22	+10.6%	met
20d range low	373.11	< 279.77	+33.4%	below
Relative volume	2.84x	>= 1.50x expansion / <= 0.70x dry-up	1.89x vs expansion	met
RSI_14	74.4	oversold < 30 · reset 35-58 · overbought > 70	+4.4 vs 70	overbought
MACD vs signal	5.696 vs -2.116	cross up: line > signal after line <= signal	spread 7.811	above
Bollinger squeeze	width 25.705	<= 20%ile cutoff 18.454	1.39x cutoff	below
vs SMA20 (pullback tag)	+21.0%	-4.0% to +1.2%	+21.0%	outside
vs 52w high (breakout)	-17.1%	>= -3.0% (within 3% of high)	-17.1%	below
SMA50 vs SMA200	319.00 vs 351.73	golden: 50 > 200 · death: 50 < 200	-9.3%	below
VIX	15.01 (low)	elevated >= 20 · stress >= 30	15.01	low

CEG Constellation Energy Corporatio

+12.2%

Cap: $106.4B
Last: 300.40
RSI 14: 67.1
vs SMA20: +12.4%

No named setup cleared the score bar. Readings still run.

New on the local stock list this close.

Pattern readings

Pattern	Current	Threshold	vs	Status
Historic drawdown	25.6%	>= top-3 avg 34.3%	0.75x	below
20d range high	300.40	> 305.80	-1.8%	below
20d range low	300.40	< 247.20	+21.5%	below
Relative volume	3.77x	>= 1.50x expansion / <= 0.70x dry-up	2.51x vs expansion	met
RSI_14	67.1	oversold < 30 · reset 35-58 · overbought > 70	mid 30-70	inside
MACD vs signal	-0.600 vs -3.084	cross up: line > signal after line <= signal	spread 2.484	above
Bollinger squeeze	width 19.104	<= 20%ile cutoff 11.934	1.60x cutoff	below
vs SMA20 (pullback tag)	+12.4%	-4.0% to +1.2%	+12.4%	outside
vs 52w high (breakout)	-27.2%	>= -3.0% (within 3% of high)	-27.2%	below
SMA50 vs SMA200	271.95 vs 287.10	golden: 50 > 200 · death: 50 < 200	-5.3%	below
VIX	15.01 (low)	elevated >= 20 · stress >= 30	15.01	low

Qualified but not picked

INIO — cooldown: carried a card 4d ago; cooldown 7d

Named-setup analog on these three

Research analog, not a forecast. Close-to-close after the first session a named setup clears min_score. Onsets are at least 21 sessions apart. A win on a buy is a higher close 21 sessions later, net of 10 bps. A win on a sell is a lower close. Hit rate is always shown next to the same names' unconditional 21-session rate. Mag7 thresholds (n ≥ 40, n_eff ≥ 40) are reported for comparability, but this walk can never earn a cleared grade: on one name n_eff equals n by construction, so read n_episodes — onsets grouped into quarter-wide windows — as the independence count. One long drawdown re-arms a washout setup every quarter and shows up as many onsets. The names were also selected because they jumped today, and the $10B floor is measured today while the history covers the era when the name was far smaller.

Lookback 2300 sessions · onset gap 21 · tape CIEN 2300 · TLN 839 · CEG 1183

Premise check: buying this name after a big up day

The page picks names because they jumped. This is that entry on each name's own history — not a named setup.

Name	up day ≥	n	episodes	21d net	base	vs SPY	beat SPY
CIEN	8%	19	16	57.9%	57.5%	+5.0%	68.4%
TLN	8%	7	7	71.4%	67.4%	+10.7%	85.7%
CEG	8%	8	7	87.5%	61.1%	+10.6%	75.0%

Today's printed setups

Name	Setup	Side	n	n_eff	episodes	21d net	base	vs SPY	beat SPY	base beat	verdict
CIEN	volume_breakout	buy	24	24.0	18	41.7%	57.5%	-1.4%	50.0%	53.4%	fail
TLN	volume_breakout	buy	11	11.0	6	54.5%	67.4%	+1.6%	54.5%	65.8%	fail
CEG	—	—	0	—		—	—	—	—	—	—

Whole-panel walk

Setup	Side	n	n_eff	episodes	21d net	base	vs SPY	beat SPY	base beat	verdict
pullback_in_uptrend	buy	82	56.3	24	51.2%	60.4%	+1.4%	52.4%	56.8%	marginal
pullback_and_rs	buy	77	52.0	23	58.4%	60.4%	+2.6%	57.1%	56.8%	marginal
cheap_vs_industry	buy	0	0.0	0	—	60.4%	—	—	56.8%	fail
breakout	buy	52	40.6	20	65.4%	60.4%	+3.7%	63.5%	56.8%	marginal
golden_cross	buy	11	10.0	9	63.6%	60.4%	+2.7%	72.7%	56.8%	fail
bullish_divergence	buy	13	12.4	10	38.5%	60.4%	+3.6%	46.2%	56.8%	fail
volume_breakout	buy	42	32.0	20	50.0%	60.4%	+0.6%	54.8%	56.8%	thin
squeeze_breakout	buy	22	17.0	14	68.2%	60.4%	+1.7%	50.0%	56.8%	fail
historic_drawdown	buy	37	30.7	18	54.1%	60.4%	+3.8%	56.8%	56.8%	fail
deep_drawdown_value	buy	13	13.0	10	61.5%	60.4%	+2.7%	61.5%	56.8%	fail
death_cross	sell	14	13.0	10	35.7%	39.0%	-5.2%	28.6%	43.2%	fail
bearish_divergence	sell	15	14.0	11	33.3%	39.0%	-3.2%	40.0%	43.2%	fail
breakdown	sell	15	15.0	9	33.3%	39.0%	-1.6%	33.3%	43.2%	fail
volume_breakdown	sell	30	26.4	17	33.3%	39.0%	-2.3%	50.0%	43.2%	fail
squeeze_breakdown	sell	14	14.0	11	35.7%	39.0%	-2.2%	42.9%	43.2%	fail
bounce_in_downtrend	sell	26	24.0	14	34.6%	39.0%	-1.7%	38.5%	43.2%	fail

CEG

Setup	Side	n	n_eff	episodes	21d net	base	vs SPY	beat SPY	base beat	verdict
pullback_in_uptrend	buy	23	23.0	11	43.5%	61.1%	-1.3%	43.5%	56.9%	fail
pullback_and_rs	buy	19	19.0	10	57.9%	61.1%	+1.1%	52.6%	56.9%	fail
cheap_vs_industry	buy	0	0.0	0	—	61.1%	—	—	56.9%	fail
breakout	buy	12	12.0	9	66.7%	61.1%	+3.1%	66.7%	56.9%	fail
golden_cross	buy	2	2.0	2	100.0%	61.1%	+1.6%	100.0%	56.9%	fail
bullish_divergence	buy	5	5.0	3	60.0%	61.1%	+9.1%	60.0%	56.9%	fail
volume_breakout	buy	7	7.0	6	71.4%	61.1%	+5.6%	71.4%	56.9%	fail
squeeze_breakout	buy	5	5.0	4	100.0%	61.1%	+5.0%	80.0%	56.9%	fail
historic_drawdown	buy	12	12.0	8	50.0%	61.1%	+1.8%	50.0%	56.9%	fail
deep_drawdown_value	buy	1	1.0	1	100.0%	61.1%	+8.2%	100.0%	56.9%	fail
death_cross	sell	3	3.0	3	33.3%	38.3%	-16.5%	0.0%	43.1%	fail
bearish_divergence	sell	2	2.0	1	0.0%	38.3%	-4.3%	50.0%	43.1%	fail
breakdown	sell	3	3.0	3	33.3%	38.3%	-0.3%	33.3%	43.1%	fail
volume_breakdown	sell	8	8.0	5	75.0%	38.3%	+3.1%	75.0%	43.1%	fail
squeeze_breakdown	sell	4	4.0	4	25.0%	38.3%	-10.2%	25.0%	43.1%	fail
bounce_in_downtrend	sell	7	7.0	4	42.9%	38.3%	+1.8%	42.9%	43.1%	fail

CIEN

Setup	Side	n	n_eff	episodes	21d net	base	vs SPY	beat SPY	base beat	verdict
pullback_in_uptrend	buy	42	42.0	20	50.0%	57.5%	+1.7%	54.8%	53.4%	marginal
pullback_and_rs	buy	41	41.0	19	56.1%	57.5%	+3.4%	58.5%	53.4%	marginal
cheap_vs_industry	buy	0	0.0	0	—	57.5%	—	—	53.4%	fail
breakout	buy	28	28.0	15	64.3%	57.5%	+3.2%	60.7%	53.4%	fail
golden_cross	buy	8	8.0	7	62.5%	57.5%	+5.9%	75.0%	53.4%	fail
bullish_divergence	buy	6	6.0	6	16.7%	57.5%	-0.3%	33.3%	53.4%	fail
volume_breakout	buy	24	24.0	18	41.7%	57.5%	-1.4%	50.0%	53.4%	fail
squeeze_breakout	buy	12	12.0	11	58.3%	57.5%	+1.1%	41.7%	53.4%	fail
historic_drawdown	buy	16	16.0	12	56.2%	57.5%	+4.4%	56.2%	53.4%	fail
deep_drawdown_value	buy	11	11.0	9	63.6%	57.5%	+3.1%	63.6%	53.4%	fail
death_cross	sell	9	9.0	8	44.4%	41.8%	-1.1%	44.4%	46.6%	fail
bearish_divergence	sell	8	8.0	8	25.0%	41.8%	-2.0%	37.5%	46.6%	fail
breakdown	sell	10	10.0	6	30.0%	41.8%	-2.4%	30.0%	46.6%	fail
volume_breakdown	sell	20	20.0	14	20.0%	41.8%	-3.6%	45.0%	46.6%	fail
squeeze_breakdown	sell	10	10.0	9	40.0%	41.8%	+1.0%	50.0%	46.6%	fail
bounce_in_downtrend	sell	17	17.0	10	29.4%	41.8%	-3.1%	35.3%	46.6%	fail

TLN

Setup	Side	n	n_eff	episodes	21d net	base	vs SPY	beat SPY	base beat	verdict
pullback_in_uptrend	buy	17	17.0	8	64.7%	67.4%	+4.5%	58.8%	65.8%	fail
pullback_and_rs	buy	17	17.0	8	64.7%	67.4%	+2.4%	58.8%	65.8%	fail
cheap_vs_industry	buy	0	0.0	0	—	67.4%	—	—	65.8%	fail
breakout	buy	12	12.0	6	66.7%	67.4%	+5.3%	66.7%	65.8%	fail
golden_cross	buy	1	1.0	1	0.0%	67.4%	-20.9%	0.0%	65.8%	fail
bullish_divergence	buy	2	2.0	2	50.0%	67.4%	+1.5%	50.0%	65.8%	fail
volume_breakout	buy	11	11.0	6	54.5%	67.4%	+1.6%	54.5%	65.8%	fail
squeeze_breakout	buy	5	5.0	5	60.0%	67.4%	-0.2%	40.0%	65.8%	fail
historic_drawdown	buy	9	9.0	4	55.6%	67.4%	+5.4%	66.7%	65.8%	fail
deep_drawdown_value	buy	1	1.0	1	0.0%	67.4%	-7.0%	0.0%	65.8%	fail
death_cross	sell	2	2.0	2	0.0%	32.2%	-6.8%	0.0%	34.2%	fail
bearish_divergence	sell	5	5.0	4	60.0%	32.2%	-4.7%	40.0%	34.2%	fail
breakdown	sell	2	2.0	2	50.0%	32.2%	+0.6%	50.0%	34.2%	fail
volume_breakdown	sell	2	2.0	2	0.0%	32.2%	-10.9%	0.0%	34.2%	fail
squeeze_breakdown	sell	1	0.0	0	—	32.2%	—	—	34.2%	fail
bounce_in_downtrend	sell	2	2.0	1	50.0%	32.2%	-1.4%	50.0%	34.2%	fail

2026-10-06

Pattern readings

Pattern readings

Pattern readings

Qualified but not picked

Named-setup analog on these three

Premise check: buying this name after a big up day

Today's printed setups

Whole-panel walk

CEG

CIEN

TLN

Earlier mover prints