After Bell Investing

After Bell Investing · Stock of the Day

2026-10-15

Three large-cap Yahoo day gainers. Market cap ≥ $10B, US listing, real volume. Same pattern readings as the Mag7 print. Filed as a note beside the print. A one-day move is not a call. VIX 16.87 low. SPY 771.77.

1

ERIC Ericsson

+11.8%

Cap
$34.8B
Last
10.71
RSI 14
68.6
vs SMA20
+11.6%

Named setup volume breakout · 58/100 · buy

Failed break if close back under 10.44; stop ~10.16.

New on the local stock list this close.

Pattern readings

PatternCurrentThresholdvsStatus
Historic drawdown 25.3% >= top-3 avg 26.3% 0.96x below
20d range high 10.71 > 10.44 +2.6% met
20d range low 10.71 < 9.04 +18.5% below
Relative volume 3.93x >= 1.50x expansion / <= 0.70x dry-up 2.62x vs expansion met
RSI_14 68.6 oversold < 30 · reset 35-58 · overbought > 70 mid 30-70 inside
MACD vs signal -0.022 vs -0.138 cross up: line > signal after line <= signal spread 0.117 above
Bollinger squeeze width 15.819 <= 20%ile cutoff 5.857 2.70x cutoff below
vs SMA20 (pullback tag) +11.6% -4.0% to +1.2% +11.6% outside
vs 52w high (breakout) -22.2% >= -3.0% (within 3% of high) -22.2% below
SMA50 vs SMA200 9.91 vs 10.89 golden: 50 > 200 · death: 50 < 200 -9.0% below
VIX 16.87 (low) elevated >= 20 · stress >= 30 16.87 low
ERIC dashboard

2

TRU TransUnion

+10.7%

Cap
$14.2B
Last
74.12
RSI 14
43.4
vs SMA20
+0.3%

Named setup historic drawdown · 82/100 · buy

Stop ~61.70 (2x ATR) or a new closing low under the drawdown trough 43.30. Peak used for the open episode: 124.72.

New on the local stock list this close.

Readings are from the 2026-10-14 close — today's bar had not settled on the tape.

Pattern readings

PatternCurrentThresholdvsStatus
Historic drawdown 46.3% >= top-3 avg 31.1% 1.49x met
20d range high 66.94 > 76.54 -12.5% below
20d range low 66.94 < 60.96 +9.8% below
Relative volume 1.15x >= 1.50x expansion / <= 0.70x dry-up 0.77x vs expansion below
RSI_14 43.4 oversold < 30 · reset 35-58 · overbought > 70 mid 30-70 inside
MACD vs signal -2.822 vs -3.544 cross up: line > signal after line <= signal spread 0.721 above
Bollinger squeeze width 21.496 <= 20%ile cutoff 12.334 1.74x cutoff below
vs SMA20 (pullback tag) +0.3% -4.0% to +1.2% +0.3% met
vs 52w high (breakout) -24.9% >= -3.0% (within 3% of high) -24.9% below
SMA50 vs SMA200 75.32 vs 74.59 golden: 50 > 200 · death: 50 < 200 +1.0% above
VIX 16.87 (low) elevated >= 20 · stress >= 30 16.87 low
TRU dashboard

3

CRCL Circle Internet Group, Inc.

+9.3%

Cap
$22.1B
Last
86.97
RSI 14
52.5
vs SMA20
+1.2%

No named setup cleared the score bar. Readings still run.

New on the local stock list this close.

Pattern readings

PatternCurrentThresholdvsStatus
Historic drawdown 67.0% >= mean of 3 completed pullbacks n/a n/a
20d range high 86.97 > 99.97 -13.0% below
20d range low 86.97 < 78.28 +11.1% below
Relative volume 1.36x >= 1.50x expansion / <= 0.70x dry-up 0.91x vs expansion below
RSI_14 52.5 oversold < 30 · reset 35-58 · overbought > 70 mid 30-70 inside
MACD vs signal -0.923 vs -0.702 cross up: line > signal after line <= signal spread -0.221 below
Bollinger squeeze width 21.792 <= 20%ile cutoff 23.170 0.94x cutoff met
vs SMA20 (pullback tag) +1.2% -4.0% to +1.2% +1.2% outside
vs 52w high (breakout) -41.0% >= -3.0% (within 3% of high) -41.0% below
SMA50 vs SMA200 85.02 vs 86.07 golden: 50 > 200 · death: 50 < 200 -1.2% below
VIX 16.87 (low) elevated >= 20 · stress >= 30 16.87 low
CRCL dashboard

Named-setup analog on these three

Research analog, not a forecast. Close-to-close after the first session a named setup clears min_score. Onsets are at least 21 sessions apart. A win on a buy is a higher close 21 sessions later, net of 10 bps. A win on a sell is a lower close. Hit rate is always shown next to the same names' unconditional 21-session rate. Mag7 thresholds (n ≥ 40, n_eff ≥ 40) are reported for comparability, but this walk can never earn a cleared grade: on one name n_eff equals n by construction, so read n_episodes — onsets grouped into quarter-wide windows — as the independence count. One long drawdown re-arms a washout setup every quarter and shows up as many onsets. The names were also selected because they jumped today, and the $10B floor is measured today while the history covers the era when the name was far smaller.

Lookback 2300 sessions · onset gap 21 · tape ERIC 2300 · TRU 2300 · CRCL 343

Premise check: buying this name after a big up day

The page picks names because they jumped. This is that entry on each name's own history — not a named setup.

Nameup day ≥nepisodes21d netbasevs SPYbeat SPY
ERIC 8% 10 9 50.0% 52.0% -1.6% 30.0%
TRU 8% 9 9 77.8% 56.0% +1.9% 55.6%
CRCL 8% 10 4 50.0% 39.8% +12.9% 60.0%

Today's printed setups

NameSetupSidenn_effepisodes21d netbasevs SPYbeat SPYbase beatverdict
ERIC volume_breakout buy 24 24.0 17 50.0% 52.0% -0.3% 41.7% 45.1% fail
TRU historic_drawdown buy 10 10.0 8 60.0% 56.0% -1.3% 40.0% 49.4% fail
CRCL — — 0 — — — — — — —

Whole-panel walk

SetupSidenn_effepisodes21d netbasevs SPYbeat SPYbase beatverdict
pullback_in_uptrend buy 89 63.3 25 51.7% 53.1% -0.7% 47.2% 46.5% fail
pullback_and_rs buy 80 60.3 24 56.2% 53.1% -0.9% 48.8% 46.5% fail
cheap_vs_industry buy 0 0.0 0 — 53.1% — — 46.5% fail
breakout buy 57 47.4 22 42.1% 53.1% -1.4% 40.4% 46.5% fail
golden_cross buy 12 11.0 9 50.0% 53.1% -5.7% 41.7% 46.5% fail
bullish_divergence buy 10 9.0 9 50.0% 53.1% -2.5% 30.0% 46.5% fail
volume_breakout buy 48 36.3 22 56.2% 53.1% -0.7% 39.6% 46.5% fail
squeeze_breakout buy 38 28.0 19 55.3% 53.1% -0.4% 47.4% 46.5% fail
historic_drawdown buy 24 20.0 13 62.5% 53.1% +0.4% 54.2% 46.5% fail
deep_drawdown_value buy 20 19.0 12 60.0% 53.1% +2.6% 55.0% 46.5% fail
death_cross sell 13 13.0 10 53.8% 46.1% -2.2% 46.2% 53.5% fail
bearish_divergence sell 4 4.0 4 25.0% 46.1% +0.9% 75.0% 53.5% fail
breakdown sell 36 29.4 15 44.4% 46.1% -1.0% 47.2% 53.5% fail
volume_breakdown sell 36 29.4 18 30.6% 46.1% -1.4% 38.9% 53.5% fail
squeeze_breakdown sell 19 17.0 11 57.9% 46.1% +0.6% 63.2% 53.5% fail
bounce_in_downtrend sell 55 43.0 18 49.1% 46.1% -0.5% 58.2% 53.5% fail

CRCL

SetupSidenn_effepisodes21d netbasevs SPYbeat SPYbase beatverdict
pullback_in_uptrend buy 1 1.0 1 0.0% 39.8% -33.1% 0.0% 36.6% fail
pullback_and_rs buy 1 1.0 1 0.0% 39.8% -33.1% 0.0% 36.6% fail
cheap_vs_industry buy 0 0.0 0 — 39.8% — — 36.6% fail
breakout buy 0 0.0 0 — 39.8% — — 36.6% fail
golden_cross buy 1 1.0 1 0.0% 39.8% -33.1% 0.0% 36.6% fail
bullish_divergence buy 1 1.0 1 100.0% 39.8% +2.9% 100.0% 36.6% fail
volume_breakout buy 2 2.0 2 50.0% 39.8% -6.0% 50.0% 36.6% fail
squeeze_breakout buy 1 1.0 1 100.0% 39.8% +28.6% 100.0% 36.6% fail
historic_drawdown buy 1 1.0 1 0.0% 39.8% -9.6% 0.0% 36.6% fail
deep_drawdown_value buy 0 0.0 0 — 39.8% — — 36.6% fail
death_cross sell 1 1.0 1 0.0% 59.9% -3.3% 0.0% 63.4% fail
bearish_divergence sell 0 0.0 0 — 59.9% — — 63.4% fail
breakdown sell 0 0.0 0 — 59.9% — — 63.4% fail
volume_breakdown sell 1 1.0 1 0.0% 59.9% -3.3% 0.0% 63.4% fail
squeeze_breakdown sell 0 0.0 0 — 59.9% — — 63.4% fail
bounce_in_downtrend sell 2 2.0 2 0.0% 59.9% -31.5% 0.0% 63.4% fail

ERIC

SetupSidenn_effepisodes21d netbasevs SPYbeat SPYbase beatverdict
pullback_in_uptrend buy 41 41.0 18 46.3% 52.0% -0.5% 41.5% 45.1% fail
pullback_and_rs buy 39 39.0 18 48.7% 52.0% -0.3% 43.6% 45.1% fail
cheap_vs_industry buy 0 0.0 0 — 52.0% — — 45.1% fail
breakout buy 28 28.0 14 39.3% 52.0% -1.8% 39.3% 45.1% fail
golden_cross buy 5 5.0 5 40.0% 52.0% -2.9% 40.0% 45.1% fail
bullish_divergence buy 7 7.0 7 57.1% 52.0% -2.8% 28.6% 45.1% fail
volume_breakout buy 24 24.0 17 50.0% 52.0% -0.3% 41.7% 45.1% fail
squeeze_breakout buy 19 19.0 15 52.6% 52.0% -0.2% 47.4% 45.1% fail
historic_drawdown buy 13 13.0 8 69.2% 52.0% +2.5% 69.2% 45.1% fail
deep_drawdown_value buy 5 5.0 3 60.0% 52.0% +0.2% 60.0% 45.1% fail
death_cross sell 6 6.0 6 50.0% 47.4% -0.1% 50.0% 54.9% fail
bearish_divergence sell 0 0.0 0 — 47.4% — — 54.9% fail
breakdown sell 21 21.0 12 47.6% 47.4% -0.2% 47.6% 54.9% fail
volume_breakdown sell 18 18.0 13 33.3% 47.4% -0.4% 44.4% 54.9% fail
squeeze_breakdown sell 15 15.0 10 53.3% 47.4% +0.2% 60.0% 54.9% fail
bounce_in_downtrend sell 27 27.0 14 59.3% 47.4% +1.7% 63.0% 54.9% fail

TRU

SetupSidenn_effepisodes21d netbasevs SPYbeat SPYbase beatverdict
pullback_in_uptrend buy 47 47.0 19 57.4% 56.0% -0.1% 53.2% 49.4% fail
pullback_and_rs buy 40 40.0 19 65.0% 56.0% -0.6% 55.0% 49.4% fail
cheap_vs_industry buy 0 0.0 0 — 56.0% — — 49.4% fail
breakout buy 29 29.0 14 44.8% 56.0% -1.1% 41.4% 49.4% fail
golden_cross buy 6 6.0 6 66.7% 56.0% -3.4% 50.0% 49.4% fail
bullish_divergence buy 2 2.0 2 0.0% 56.0% -4.2% 0.0% 49.4% fail
volume_breakout buy 22 22.0 16 63.6% 56.0% -0.6% 36.4% 49.4% fail
squeeze_breakout buy 18 18.0 13 55.6% 56.0% -2.2% 44.4% 49.4% fail
historic_drawdown buy 10 10.0 8 60.0% 56.0% -1.3% 40.0% 49.4% fail
deep_drawdown_value buy 15 15.0 10 60.0% 56.0% +3.4% 53.3% 49.4% fail
death_cross sell 6 6.0 6 66.7% 42.9% -4.2% 50.0% 50.6% fail
bearish_divergence sell 4 4.0 4 25.0% 42.9% +0.9% 75.0% 50.6% fail
breakdown sell 15 15.0 9 40.0% 42.9% -2.1% 46.7% 50.6% fail
volume_breakdown sell 17 17.0 12 29.4% 42.9% -2.4% 35.3% 50.6% fail
squeeze_breakdown sell 4 4.0 3 75.0% 42.9% +1.7% 75.0% 50.6% fail
bounce_in_downtrend sell 26 26.0 11 42.3% 42.9% -0.4% 57.7% 50.6% fail

Earlier mover prints

  1. GMAB · VG · CART · 3 cards
  2. SPOT · ALLE · WCN · 3 cards
  3. SMCI · CRL · ZS · 3 cards
  4. TLK · EFX · HAS · 3 cards
  5. FROG · SMMT · RMBS · 3 cards
  6. AR · OVV · EQNR · 3 cards
  7. HALO · GFS · UNH · 3 cards
  8. CDW · VG · INFY · 3 cards
  9. FICO · MANH · FRO · 3 cards
  10. CCI · MRNA · HUM · 3 cards
  11. CSGP · FLUT · PBF · 3 cards
  12. BSP · GKOS · SPOT · 3 cards
  13. CIEN · TLN · CEG · 3 cards
  14. PTC · XP · PCVX · 3 cards
  15. IBRX · INIO · FPS · 3 cards