Close print
2026-10-27
- VIX 18.39 low
- SPY 769.66
- 1 named setup
Research record of this close. Not a buy or sell instruction.
Same close: Stock of the day · Earnings note
Desk take
The tape is calm, with the volatility gauge in a low regime and the broad index closing at 769.66, a backdrop that tends to favor orderly trend continuation over sharp reversals.
Microsoft is the only name published on this close. Price sits above both the 50-day and 200-day averages with the shorter one above the longer, a bullish structural alignment. It has pulled back to within 0.4% of its 20-day average while the 14-day momentum reading near 56 reflects a reset rather than a chase, and 21-day relative strength versus the broad index is modestly positive on roughly average volume. The pullback-in-uptrend condition fired on that combination of intact trend and cooled momentum. The constructive picture would be voided by a daily close back below the 50-day average.
Named setups
MSFT MSFT pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend
Close531.33
Stop509.48
Score 82/100 · pullback in uptrend
The chart shows a classic pullback within a dominant primary uptrend, holding comfortably above its intermediate moving averages. Relative strength metrics reflect steady outperformance against the broader market while momentum indicators have cooled into a neutral posture. This setup highlights an orderly consolidation phase rather than aggressive distribution.
Invalidation: Daily close back below SMA50.
How these setups were tested
Window Over the measured window — ten years of the local tape, 21 names, onsets spaced so one market phase counts once, and a 10 bps round trip — no named setup beat holding these companies. Result The unconditional 21-session up-rate was 58.67%. On buy-now versus wait through the next 21 sessions, every setup landed between −0.67% and +0.64% against a random session. One setup clears the publish gate: historic_drawdown at a 61.25% net hit rate on 352 onsets, and its 95% interval bottoms out at 50.33% — a third of a point above a coin. How to read Read that as a gate it passed, not an edge it demonstrated. The desk publishes named setups as context — what happened on the tape — not as timing calls. Scheduled accumulation is the default the evidence supports. The 58.67% figure is not an expected future return: the universe is today's survivors chosen after the fact, which inflates the absolute up-rate.
On the shelf
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