2026-10-13

Desk take

What we think of this print

Close print for 2026-10-13. VIX 15.21 (low) and SPY 778.05 set the tape. Hybrid desk: the scanner names the setup, the model grades that same print, and published conviction is the blend. The model cannot add a name that did not fire.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): scanner what happened — NVDA traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 96/100 (setup 100). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 32.6 is below the semiconductors peer median 42.6 (23% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($5.52T vs $988.5B).; Cap is more than 2× the peer median — quality/size filter.; VIX regime is low (15.21).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 6.1%.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~217.33.. Continuation of the 2026-10-12 alert, not a new one — this is print 8 of one run: the same call has gone out 7 times since 2026-10-02 across 11 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-12. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=266, n_eff=84.9, 95% CI 48–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.1%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 95/100: The cheap_vs_industry setup is well supported by a significant trailing P/E discount relative to semiconductor peers alongside a massive market capitalization. Robust 21-day relative strength and a low VIX regime add strong tailwinds to the observation. This provides a compelling fundamental and technical entry point in a market leader. Risk: A multiple re-rating or a breakdown below the 200-day simple moving average invalidates the thesis..

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): scanner what happened — TSM traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 96/100 (setup 100). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 32.1 is below the semiconductors peer median 62.3 (48% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($2.31T vs $988.5B).; Cap is more than 2× the peer median — quality/size filter.; VIX regime is low (15.21).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 4.2%.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~422.84.. Continuation of the 2026-10-12 alert, not a new one — this is print 5 of one run: the same call has gone out 4 times since 2026-10-07 across 6 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-12. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-07, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=266, n_eff=84.9, 95% CI 48–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.1%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 94/100: Taiwan Semiconductor exhibits a powerful cheap_vs_industry profile, trading at a steep discount to peer median P/E while maintaining elite scale. Positive relative strength against the S&P 500 under a calm VIX environment validates the setup. The setup cleanly identifies structural value in a dominant manufacturer. Risk: Failure to hold above the 200-day moving average or sudden multiple compression invalidates the trade..

Micron Technology (MU): scanner what happened — MU traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 95/100 (setup 98). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 12.6 is below the semiconductors peer median 69.1 (82% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($1.08T vs $766.0B).; VIX regime is low (15.21).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 0.9%.; Relative volume 1.09x.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~858.65.. Continuation of the 2026-10-12 alert, not a new one — this is print 8 of one run: the same call has gone out 7 times since 2026-10-02 across 11 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-12. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=266, n_eff=84.9, 95% CI 48–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.1%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 92/100: Micron offers a massive valuation discount on trailing earnings compared to the broader semiconductor peer group. Market capitalization comfortably clears quality thresholds while relative volume supports accumulation. The setup captures a deep value profile in a cyclical leader during a low volatility regime. Risk: A sharp drop below the 200-day moving average or a reversal in earnings momentum breaks the thesis..

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): scanner what happened — AMZN traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 76/100 (setup 93). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 20.8 is below the internet retail / big-box peer median 28.6 (27% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($2.79T vs $350.4B).; Cap is more than 2× the peer median — quality/size filter.; VIX regime is low (15.21).. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~247.18.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=266, n_eff=84.9, 95% CI 48–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.1%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM haircut at 72/100: While Amazon qualifies as cheap_vs_industry based on trailing P/E and large cap status, the lack of positive short-term relative strength tempers enthusiasm. The setup is fundamentally sound but lacks the immediate momentum seen in other tech names. It remains a constructive observational print rather than a high-conviction immediate buy. Risk: Persistent underperformance versus the broader market or loss of the 200-day moving average invalidates the setup..

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): scanner what happened — AMD pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 85/100 (setup 85). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.21).; RSI_14=55.8 is a reset, not a chase.; Close is -0.4% from SMA20 (pullback/tag).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 20.5%.. Invalidation: Stop ~556.40 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=114.7, 95% CI 51–69%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 86/100: The pullback_in_uptrend setup is cleanly executed with price holding above rising major moving averages and a healthy RSI reset. Exceptional 21-day relative strength confirms strong underlying institutional sponsorship. The setup offers a low-risk entry within a firmly established bullish regime. Risk: A close below the 50-day moving average or a breach of the double-ATR stop invalidates the trend..

KLA (KLAC): scanner what happened — KLAC sat in a deep drawdown during VIX stress at 80/100 (setup 78). Why it printed: Close is -40.1% from the 52-week high — a deep drawdown.; Drawdown reaches 35% from the high.; Drawdown is at least the mean of this name's largest completed pullbacks (37.9%).; Trailing P/E is 5% cheaper than the industry-peer median.; TTM EPS is still growing through the drawdown (12.9% YoY).. Invalidation: Stop ~168.13 (2x ATR) or TTM earnings turning negative.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=221, n_eff=58.2, 95% CI 50–74%) show a 63% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.6%, vs SPY +1.4%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 80/100: The deep_drawdown_value setup is fully justified by a severe correction from 52-week highs that meets historical drawdown thresholds. Continued year-over-year EPS growth through the pullback shows underlying business resilience. This print effectively flags a high-quality name undergoing a cyclical wash. Risk: A deterioration in trailing earnings or a break below the ATR-based stop invalidates the thesis..

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): scanner what happened — GOOGL traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 67/100 (setup 77). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 17.8 is below the interactive media peer median 18.6 (4% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($2.08T vs $9.9B).; Cap is more than 2× the peer median — quality/size filter.; VIX regime is low (15.21).. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~337.52.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=266, n_eff=84.9, 95% CI 48–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.1%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM haircut at 65/100: Alphabet meets the numerical criteria for the cheap_vs_industry setup, but the P/E discount to peers is narrow at just four percent. Negative 21-day relative strength against the S&P 500 prevents a higher conviction grade. The observation is technically correct but functionally lacks strong momentum. Risk: A drop below the 200-day moving average or continued relative weakness invalidates the setup..

Marvell Technology (MRVL): scanner what happened — MRVL pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 78/100 (setup 75). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.21).; RSI_14=56.8 is a reset, not a chase.; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 20.5%.; Relative volume 0.88x.. Invalidation: Stop ~238.32 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=114.7, 95% CI 51–69%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 78/100: Marvell cleanly displays a pullback_in_uptrend setup supported by strong structural moving average alignment. Outstanding relative strength over the past month underscores robust buying pressure despite a mild volume dry-up. The setup provides a reliable continuation entry in a leading semiconductor name. Risk: Loss of the 50-day moving average or a failure at the ATR stop invalidates the structure..

Apple Inc. (AAPL): scanner what happened — AAPL closed near a 52-week high at 70/100 (setup 65). Why it printed: Within 2.0% of 52-week high.; Still in a bullish SMA regime.; Beating SPY by 0.2% over 21d.; VIX regime low.. Invalidation: Failed breakout if close back below prior 52w high and stop ~327.78.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=738, n_eff=100.7, 95% CI 49–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.8%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM wait at 68/100: The breakout setup is technically present near 52-week highs, but the lack of substantial relative strength or high volume makes it less urgent. While the broader trend is intact, the close does not demand immediate portfolio adjustments. It is better treated as a watch-list item until momentum expands. Risk: A failed breakout closing back below the prior high invalidates the pattern..

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): scanner what happened — MSFT closed near a 52-week high at 70/100 (setup 65). Why it printed: Within 1.9% of 52-week high.; Still in a bullish SMA regime.; Beating SPY by 5.3% over 21d.; VIX regime low.. Invalidation: Failed breakout if close back below prior 52w high and stop ~520.59.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=738, n_eff=100.7, 95% CI 49–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.8%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 72/100: Microsoft demonstrates a solid breakout setup supported by healthy relative strength over the trailing 21 days. Elevated RSI reflects strong buying momentum near 52-week highs under a calm market regime. The scanner accurately identifies a continuation pattern in a premier mega-cap. Risk: A reversal back below the prior 52-week high resistance level invalidates the breakout..

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): scanner what happened — META closed near a 52-week high at 58/100 (setup 65). Why it printed: Within 2.2% of 52-week high.; Still in a bullish SMA regime.; Beating SPY by 12.3% over 21d.; VIX regime low.. Invalidation: Failed breakout if close back below prior 52w high and stop ~714.75.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=738, n_eff=100.7, 95% CI 49–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.8%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM wait at 58/100: Meta registers a breakout setup near highs accompanied by impressive multi-week relative strength. However, extended momentum indicators suggest waiting for a minor consolidation before acting. The observation is valid, but chasing at these levels warrants patience. Risk: A sharp rejection at highs and a close below the prior breakout level invalidates the setup..

Qualcomm (QCOM): scanner what happened — QCOM pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 70/100 (setup 65). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.21).; RSI_14=46.3 is a reset, not a chase.; Relative volume 0.86x.; Recent volume dry-up — less chase, more coil.. Invalidation: Stop ~162.55 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Continuation of the 2026-10-05 alert, not a new one — this is print 3 of one run: the same call has gone out twice since 2026-10-02 across 11 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-05. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=114.7, 95% CI 51–69%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM haircut at 66/100: The pullback_in_uptrend setup is technically present, but negative relative strength over the past month signals relative weakness. A subdued relative volume and mid-range RSI indicate a lack of immediate buying catalyst. It is a functional setup that requires confirmation of renewed institutional interest. Risk: A daily close below the 50-day moving average invalidates the trend structure..

Texas Instruments (TXN): scanner what happened — TXN pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 66/100 (setup 60). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.21).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 7.0%.; Relative volume 0.95x.. Invalidation: Stop ~271.24 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=114.7, 95% CI 51–69%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 68/100: Texas Instruments shows a reliable pullback_in_uptrend setup backed by positive relative strength and proper moving average hierarchy. The calm VIX regime supports a steady accumulation phase. The setup accurately captures a orderly pullback in a stable semiconductor stock. Risk: A breakdown below the 50-day moving average or the ATR stop invalidates the trade..

Analog Devices (ADI): scanner what happened — ADI pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 66/100 (setup 60). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.21).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 12.6%.; Relative volume 0.86x.. Invalidation: Stop ~392.12 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=114.7, 95% CI 51–69%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 70/100: Analog Devices presents a well-structured pullback_in_uptrend with robust 21-day relative strength outperforming the broader market. Major moving averages remain properly stacked in a bullish configuration. The print cleanly identifies a high-quality name pausing constructively within its trend. Risk: A loss of the 50-day moving average or a break of the defined ATR stop invalidates the setup..

Applied Materials (AMAT): scanner what happened — AMAT sat in a deep drawdown during VIX stress at 65/100 (setup 58). Why it printed: Close is -37.2% from the 52-week high — a deep drawdown.; Drawdown reaches 35% from the high.; Trailing P/E is 18% cheaper than the industry-peer median.; TTM EPS is still growing through the drawdown (14.0% YoY).. Invalidation: Stop ~423.61 (2x ATR) or TTM earnings turning negative.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=221, n_eff=58.2, 95% CI 50–74%) show a 63% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.6%, vs SPY +1.4%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 67/100: Applied Materials fits the deep_drawdown_value setup due to a severe decline from yearly highs paired with positive earnings growth. High relative volume indicates active accumulation taking place at these discounted levels. The scanner correctly isolates a compelling value opportunity after a wash cycle. Risk: A reversal in trailing earnings growth or a breach of the ATR stop invalidates the thesis..

Overall: mixed hybrid tape. Read each card's scanner grade, LLM stance, and hybrid conviction separately — not as one market call.

RESEARCH ONLY — not advice.

Scanner names what happened on the tape. The model grades that observation. Hybrid conviction is what publishes. The model cannot add a name that did not fire. Research only — not a timing call.

add reminders

Five add reminders

Live add reminders: K1, K2, K3, K4, and K5. Exclusive listing, strongest first. Not a named setup. Does not score. Now vs 52w is close versus the 252-session high. This-name median is that same drawdown on this ticker's prior fires of the same gate.

Quiet today: K1 Weekly RSI (fear) · K2 Weekly RSI (elevated) · K3 Daily RSI (fear) · K4 Daily RSI (elevated) · K5 Daily RSI (calm) · K6 Weekly RSI (industry stress) · K7 Weekly RSI (industry elevated) · K8 Daily RSI (industry stress) · K9 Daily RSI (industry elevated) · K10 Daily RSI (industry calm) · K11 Weekly RSI · K12 Daily RSI.

Quiet watch: no desk name is approaching. VIX must already be 30.