2026-10-08

Desk take

What we think of this print

Close print for 2026-10-08. VIX 15.08 (low) and SPY 773.97 set the tape. Hybrid desk: the scanner names the setup, the model grades that same print, and published conviction is the blend. The model cannot add a name that did not fire.

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): scanner what happened — NVDA traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 98/100 (setup 100). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 32.9 is below the semiconductors peer median 44.3 (26% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($5.57T vs $1.01T).; Cap is more than 2× the peer median — quality/size filter.; VIX regime is low (15.08).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 1.5%.; Relative volume 1.00x.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~218.97.. Continuation of the 2026-10-07 alert, not a new one — this is print 5 of one run: the same call has gone out 4 times since 2026-10-02 across 6 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-07. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=266, n_eff=84.7, 95% CI 48–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.0%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 98/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~218.97..

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): scanner what happened — TSM traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 98/100 (setup 100). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 33.0 is below the semiconductors peer median 64.2 (49% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($2.38T vs $1.01T).; Cap is more than 2× the peer median — quality/size filter.; VIX regime is low (15.08).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 3.7%.; Relative volume 1.02x.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~435.79.. Continuation of the 2026-10-07 alert, not a new one — this is print 2 of one run: the same call went out on 2026-10-07. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-07, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=266, n_eff=84.7, 95% CI 48–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.0%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 98/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~435.79..

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): scanner what happened — AMZN traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 80/100 (setup 98). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 20.4 is below the internet retail / big-box peer median 28.6 (29% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($2.74T vs $350.4B).; Cap is more than 2× the peer median — quality/size filter.; VIX regime is low (15.08).; Relative volume 0.91x.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~242.69.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=266, n_eff=84.7, 95% CI 48–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.0%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 80/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~242.69..

Applied Materials (AMAT): scanner what happened — AMAT traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 92/100 (setup 93). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 46.7 is below the semiconductor equipment peer median 55.1 (15% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($404.4B vs $401.2B).; VIX regime is low (15.08).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 7.2%.; Relative volume 0.94x.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~471.62.. Continuation of the 2026-10-07 alert, not a new one — this is print 3 of one run: the same call has gone out twice since 2026-10-06 across 2 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-07. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-06, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=266, n_eff=84.7, 95% CI 48–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.0%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 92/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~471.62..

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): scanner what happened — META pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 81/100 (setup 90). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.08).; RSI_14=57.5 is a reset, not a chase.; Close is 0.7% from SMA20 (pullback/tag).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 8.8%.; Recent volume dry-up — less chase, more coil.. Invalidation: Stop ~675.16 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=113.5, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 81/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~675.16 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Micron Technology (MU): scanner what happened — MU traded cheaper than its industry peers on trailing P/E at 90/100 (setup 90). Why it printed: Trailing P/E 13.7 is below the semiconductors peer median 71.1 (81% cheaper).; Market cap still sits above the peer median ($1.17T vs $789.6B).; VIX regime is low (15.08).; Relative volume 1.07x.. Invalidation: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~942.55.. Continuation of the 2026-10-07 alert, not a new one — this is print 5 of one run: the same call has gone out 4 times since 2026-10-02 across 6 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-07. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=266, n_eff=84.7, 95% CI 48–68%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +3.0%, vs SPY +1.3%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 90/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Multiple re-rates up to the peer median P/E, or a daily close back below SMA200; stop ~942.55..

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): scanner what happened — GOOGL pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 78/100 (setup 85). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.08).; RSI_14=53.5 is a reset, not a chase.; Close is 0.9% from SMA20 (pullback/tag).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 3.8%.. Invalidation: Stop ~331.21 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=113.5, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 78/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~331.21 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

ASML Holding (ASML): scanner what happened — ASML pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 79/100 (setup 75). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.08).; RSI_14=51.2 is a reset, not a chase.; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 0.8%.; Relative volume 1.33x.. Invalidation: Stop ~1666.75 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=113.5, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 79/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~1666.75 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

KLA (KLAC): scanner what happened — KLAC pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 79/100 (setup 75). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.08).; RSI_14=55.9 is a reset, not a chase.; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 6.0%.; Relative volume 1.04x.. Invalidation: Stop ~180.77 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=113.5, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 79/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~180.77 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Apple Inc. (AAPL): scanner what happened — AAPL closed near a 52-week high at 71/100 (setup 65). Why it printed: Within 1.4% of 52-week high.; Still in a bullish SMA regime.; Beating SPY by 6.4% over 21d.; VIX regime low.. Invalidation: Failed breakout if close back below prior 52w high and stop ~327.38.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=739, n_eff=102.0, 95% CI 49–67%) show a 58% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.8%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 71/100: Scanner structure and tape line up. This is still a research print, not a forecast. Risk: Failed breakout if close back below prior 52w high and stop ~327.38..

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): scanner what happened — MSFT pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 68/100 (setup 60). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.08).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 4.8%.; Relative volume 0.85x.. Invalidation: Stop ~499.36 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Continuation of the 2026-09-11 alert, not a new one — this is print 2 of one run: the same call went out on 2026-09-11. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-09-11, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=113.5, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 68/100: Scanner structure and tape line up. This is still a research print, not a forecast. Risk: Stop ~499.36 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): scanner what happened — AMD pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 68/100 (setup 60). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.08).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 17.6%.; Relative volume 0.99x.. Invalidation: Stop ~572.53 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=113.5, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 68/100: Scanner structure and tape line up. This is still a research print, not a forecast. Risk: Stop ~572.53 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Lam Research (LRCX): scanner what happened — LRCX pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 68/100 (setup 60). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.08).; RSI_14=52.1 is a reset, not a chase.; Relative volume 0.92x.. Invalidation: Stop ~293.08 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=113.5, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 68/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~293.08 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Texas Instruments (TXN): scanner what happened — TXN pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 68/100 (setup 60). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.08).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 8.7%.; Relative volume 0.96x.. Invalidation: Stop ~272.10 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=113.5, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 68/100: Scanner structure and tape line up. This is still a research print, not a forecast. Risk: Stop ~272.10 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Analog Devices (ADI): scanner what happened — ADI pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 68/100 (setup 60). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.08).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 9.7%.; Relative volume 1.11x.. Invalidation: Stop ~383.61 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=113.5, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 68/100: Scanner structure and tape line up. This is still a research print, not a forecast. Risk: Stop ~383.61 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Intel (INTC): scanner what happened — INTC pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 68/100 (setup 60). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.08).; RSI_14=45.8 is a reset, not a chase.; Relative volume 1.04x.. Invalidation: Stop ~95.04 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Continuation of the 2026-10-06 alert, not a new one — this is print 2 of one run: the same call went out on 2026-10-06. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-06, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=113.5, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 68/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~95.04 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Marvell Technology (MRVL): scanner what happened — MRVL pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 68/100 (setup 60). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.08).; 21d relative strength vs SPY is 15.4%.; Relative volume 1.42x.. Invalidation: Stop ~245.70 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=113.5, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 68/100: Scanner structure and tape line up. This is still a research print, not a forecast. Risk: Stop ~245.70 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Qualcomm (QCOM): scanner what happened — QCOM pulled back to its 20-day average inside an uptrend at 64/100 (setup 55). Why it printed: Price above SMA50 and SMA50 above SMA200 (bullish regime).; VIX regime is low (15.08).; RSI_14=44.9 is a reset, not a chase.. Invalidation: Stop ~160.92 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50.. Continuation of the 2026-10-05 alert, not a new one — this is print 3 of one run: the same call has gone out twice since 2026-10-02 across 6 calendar days, most recently on 2026-10-05. Today is not a fresh signal; the setup was already true when the desk last printed it. The analog below measures the first session of a run, so its hit rate belongs to 2026-10-02, not to today. Same-setup analogs on 21 names (n=1021, n_eff=113.5, 95% CI 50–68%) show a 60% 21-session net hit rate against a 59% base rate, average +2.8%, vs SPY +1.5%. The 95% interval includes 50%, so this is the desk's narrative setup rather than a demonstrated edge. LLM confirm at 64/100: Analogs and RSI both support a reset rather than a chase. Risk: Stop ~160.92 (2x ATR) or daily close back below SMA50..

Overall: scanner and model agree on the named prints. They can still fail; the analog table is research history, not a forecast.

RESEARCH ONLY — not advice.

Scanner names what happened on the tape. The model grades that observation. Hybrid conviction is what publishes. The model cannot add a name that did not fire. Research only — not a timing call.

add reminders

Five add reminders

Live add reminders: K1, K2, K3, K4, and K5. Exclusive listing, strongest first. Not a named setup. Does not score. Now vs 52w is close versus the 252-session high. This-name median is that same drawdown on this ticker's prior fires of the same gate.

Quiet today: K1 Weekly RSI (fear) · K2 Weekly RSI (elevated) · K3 Daily RSI (fear) · K4 Daily RSI (elevated) · K5 Daily RSI (calm) · K6 Weekly RSI (industry stress) · K7 Weekly RSI (industry elevated) · K8 Daily RSI (industry stress) · K9 Daily RSI (industry elevated) · K10 Daily RSI (industry calm) · K11 Weekly RSI · K12 Daily RSI.

Quiet watch: no desk name is approaching. VIX must already be 30.